Update

This Update features material on two separate subjects - the ongoing popular unrest against the regime within Iran, and the US Administration's announcement last week of a policy that "The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements is not, per se, inconsistent with international law.” 

This Update deals with the Israeli conflict with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organisation in Gaza over the past few days, which saw 450 rockets and mortar shells fired into Israel from Gaza after Israel killed Baha Abu al Atta, a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commander responsible for multiple rocket and border attacks against Israel in recent months.

This Update asks the question, is a major military conflict between Israel and Iran its proxies inevitable in the next few years? Increasing numbers of knowledgable Israeli security analysts are arguing that it is, and this Update explores why. 

This Update deals with both the killing of Islamic State head Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by US special forces last weekend and the ongoing mass demonstrations in Lebanon, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday. 

This Update deals with the consequences of the Turkish invasion of Kurdish-controlled northern Syria over the last few days, and its effective green-lighting by US President Donald Trump earlier this week. 

Yesterday, after Israel's election committee published its final results from the election last Tuesday, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin gave incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu the first mandate to try and form a new governing coalition. This follows an intense but unsuccessful effort by Rivlin to broker a national unity government between Netanyahu and his chief rival, Benny Gantz.

This Update is devoted to analysis of the US Middle East policy in the wake of the firing of US National Security Advisor John Bolton by President Donald Trump on Wednesday - with a special focus on the future on the US policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran to renegotiate the controversial 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) nuclear deal. 

This Update deal with the situation of Hezbollah in its confrontation with Israel in the wake of a complex series of incidents last Sunday when the group launched cross-border anti-tank missile fire to try to take revenge on Israel for alleged Israeli attacks on Hezbollah sites the previous weekend. 

Last weekend saw four separate attacks on Iran-linked targets in Lebanon. Syria and Iraq which many sources have attributed to Israel. This Update follows up by looking at the broader implications of recent events in terms of Israel's general strategy for confronting the build-up of Iranian-affiliated forces, bases and military manufacturing capabilities in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. 

This Update deals with some recent analysis of Israeli policy toward Syria as the civil war there winds down, and some specific concerns vis-a-vis Syria for Israel, other regional actors, and the international community more broadly.