New US and EU sanctions on Iran/Islamists in Egypt and the Palestinian territories
January 25, 2012
This update looks at the latest sanctions imposed by the US and European Union on Iran’s oil industry and Central Bank; how an Islamist-controlled Egyptian Parliament will affect the country’s ties with Israel; and the chances of Hamas winning Palestinian elections mooted to be held in May.
Iran’s nuclear program: covert action, Fordow, policy options
January 18, 2012
This Update offers threes pieces related to recent news on the ongoing crisis over Iran’s nuclear program.
First up, former security adviser to the British government Andrew Cummings explains the rationale behind the campaign of covert action against Iran, as epitomised by the killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist last week. Cummings argues that those who assert that such moves are dangerous fail to understand that the alternatives are even more risky and fraught.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s plan for Egypt/ PA PM Fayyad speaks out on Iran
January 13, 2012
This Updates leads with two articles on the likely policies of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood now that it has won the parliamentary election, gaining approximately 41% of seats with other Islamist groups taking the Islamist bloc up to something like 2/3 of all seats.
First up is Washington Institute expert on Egyptian politics Eric Trager, looking at the likely agenda of the Brotherhood in power. He says that the agenda will be theocracy internally, and confrontation internationally, and that expectations that the group will moderate are very unlikely to be met – offering some behavioural evidence for this.
Back to the negotiating table?
January 12, 2012
The last two weeks have seen two meetings in Amman Jordan between Israeli and Palestinian representatives, in what are being called “preparatory talks”, but are the first direct public contacts between the two sides since 2010. (Some more details on the latest rounds of talks are reported here, here and here.)
A good backgrounder from BICOM on both the significance of the talks and the political factors influencing them is first up. It puts the meetings in the context of the Quartet efforts to restart talks and significant pressure on the Palestinian side to renew negotiations, and discusses what is known about the contents of the two meetings.