FRESH AIR

Russo-Iranian drone factory will eventually haunt the Middle East

February 10, 2023 | Oved Lobel

Remnants of an Iranian Shahed-136 "suicide drone" in Ukraine, designated as Geranium-2 in Russian.
Remnants of an Iranian Shahed-136 "suicide drone" in Ukraine, designated as Geranium-2 in Russian.

As exclusively reported by the Wall Street Journal on Nov. 19,  Russian and Iranian officials last year finalised an agreement to establish a production line for Iranian drones inside Russia, with the Ukrainian Air Force and other Western officials asserting that Iran was already transferring blueprints and components.

This week, a new exclusive Journal report revealed that a senior Iranian delegation, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials, visited Russia on Jan. 5 to examine the site of a planned factory in Yelabuga. Once up and running, the plant will produce approximately 6000 Iranian-designed drones per year. Moreover, the report said, Russia and Iran are trying to qualitatively upgrade the design of the Shahed-136, or Geranium-2, loitering munitions with a new engine that will allow it to fly farther and faster. The factory will then produce this upgraded version.

Needless to say, this is bad news for Ukraine in the medium term; it is also very bad news for the Middle East, as no doubt the IRGC will take possession of some of these numerous, upgraded drones and dole them out to its various front groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Iran to use against Saudi, American and potentially Israeli targets.

These more advanced drones and their larger numbers will be accompanied by the reported forthcoming transfer of dozens of advanced Russian Su-35 aircraft to Iran as well as helicopters, air defence systems and other advanced military components. Iran is also reportedly approaching Russia for help with its nuclear program, and some Israeli officials fear Russia could transfer hypersonic missiles to Iran. Russia also built and launched a spy satellite for the IRGC.

Of course, the global Russo-Iranian alliance is nothing new, but what is new is Iran transferring production capabilities and designs to Russian territory, where Israel is highly unlikely to attempt the sabotage and assassination operations it has been carrying out with relative ease across Iran.

It is highly likely that the drone production factory Iran opened in 2022 in Tajikistan – under de facto Russian security control and which Iran and Russia have previously used as a joint base for operations in Afghanistan – will also be used by both countries. This was always the logical next step for the IRGC, which has long been using Russian aircraft and the main Russian base in Syria to attempt to protect its personnel and weapons transfers from Israeli strikes.

It’s unclear what the timeframe will be for the new drone factory in Russia, but if and when it is established, it will likely dramatically increase the striking power not only of Russia, but of the IRGC and its regional fronts, such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, as well. This is something that regional states, including Israel, have every interest in heading off, and all of these countries must warn Moscow that there will be concrete economic, political and military consequences should the Iranian drone factory be established.

When it comes to Australia, the progressively deepening military-technical cooperation between Russia and Iran is yet more evidence of what I warned of last July; namely, that Iran, far from being a junior partner, is a key member of the anti-Western axis alongside Russia and China, and that Australia cannot afford to ignore it or view it as a separate strategic issue. An adviser to Iran’s intelligence minister recently claimed that China would be receiving 15,000 Iranian drones.

While Australia’s new sanctions on the drone elements of the Russo-Iranian partnership are welcome, what is required is a sea change in Australian policy towards Iran. A good start would be to adopt the recommendations in the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee’s recent report on Iran.

Managing the relationship with the Chinese Communist Party is an unfortunate necessity due to economic factors. No such justification exists for managing relations with Iran rather than reducing them to the greatest extent possible. Instead, Australia should adopt a more coercive approach to the Iranian regime, which has been an avowed enemy of the Western world, including Australia, since its establishment in 1979 and must be viewed and treated as such.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

(image: Shutterstock/Svet Foto)

Houthi deal is a dangerous blow to US credibility and deterrence

May 14, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR

In conversation with Dr Einat Wilf

May 8, 2025 | Fresh AIR
(image: Shutterstock/Svet Foto)

Military strikes alone won’t stop the Houthis without direct pressure on Iran

Mar 20, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR
(Image: Shutterstock)

Israel didn’t target the IVF clinic

Mar 14, 2025 | Fresh AIR
Image: X

Pay-for-Slay is likely still Pay-for-Slay

Mar 7, 2025 | Fresh AIR
Image: X

The missing pieces of the Thai hostages story

Feb 21, 2025 | Fresh AIR
D11a774c 2a47 C987 F4ce 2d642e6d9c8d

Bibi in DC, the Houthi threat and the politicised ICJ opinion

Jul 26, 2024 | Update
Image: Shutterstock

Nine months after Oct. 7: Where Israel stands now

Jul 10, 2024 | Update
Palestinian Red Crescent workers from Al-Najjar Hospital in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip (Image: Shutterstock)

Hamas’ impossible casualty figures

Mar 28, 2024 | Update
455daec3 C2a8 8752 C215 B7bd062c6bbc

After the Israel-Hamas ceasefire for hostages deal

Nov 29, 2023 | Update
Screenshot of Hamas bodycam footage as terrorists approach an Israeli vehicle during the terror organisation's October 7, 2023 attack in southern Israel, released by the IDF and GPO (Screenshot)

Horror on Video / International Law and the Hamas War

Oct 31, 2023 | Update
Sderot, Israel. 7th Oct, 2023. Bodies of dead Israelis lie on the ground following the attacks of Hamas (Image: Ilia Yefimovich/dpa/Alamy Live News)

Israel’s Sept. 11, only worse

Oct 11, 2023 | Update
Screenshot 2025 05 30 At 11.22.09 AM

Albanese urged to visit Israel instead of ‘throwing mud’ over Gaza war: Joel Burnie on Sky News

May 30, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot 2025 05 09 At 12.06.51 PM

The Australian elections and the Middle East: Joel Burnie on the Middle East Forum podcast

May 9, 2025 | Video
Screenshot 2025 05 07 At 9.28.49 AM

Greens ran a ‘toxic and divisive’ election campaign for Jewish voters: Joel Burnie on Sky News

May 7, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot 2025 04 09 At 12.12.01 PM

Hamas sees live Israeli hostages as their “ultimate insurance policy”: Ehud Yaari on Sky News

Apr 9, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot 2025 04 05 At 8.28.58 AM

Ehud Yaari in conversation with Joel Burnie

Apr 5, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot 2025 03 28 At 11.35.48 AM

The day after the end of the Gaza war – and the new opportunities it presents: Ehud Yaari at the Sydney Institute

Mar 28, 2025 | Video

RECENT POSTS

Screenshot 2025 05 30 At 11.22.09 AM

Albanese urged to visit Israel instead of ‘throwing mud’ over Gaza war: Joel Burnie on Sky News

Hamas' October 7 attack produced scenes that Israelis can never forget (Image: Hamas bodycam)

The hypocrisy of international outrage

“Palestine” may have a flag, but it does not currently meet the criteria for statehood. Prematurely recognising it will not bring the day it does closer (Image: Shutterstock)

Nine reasons premature recognition would be bad for Palestine

The raw anti-Israel hate on Western streets is a symptom of a deeper social malaise, writes Murray (Image: Shutterstock)

Biblio File: Israel and the pathologies of the West

A wounded Palestinian arrives at Al-Najjar Hospital in the Gaza Strip (Image: Anas Mohammed/ Shutterstock)

Scribblings: Interpreting Hamas’ casualty numbers

SORT BY TOPICS