FRESH AIR

Understanding the Israeli election result

March 3, 2020 | Ahron Shapiro

74A7B370 48B8 42DA 99D5 9606D11ACC8D 4993 0000059175AE5E41

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu surprised critics after polls closed last night when he had elevated his Likud party to its highest-ever result under his leadership – up to an estimated 37 seats, according to exit polls, with his rival Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party lagging behind with anywhere from between 32-34 seats. Moreover, Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc has increased in size from 55 seats to an estimated 59 seats, with Gantz’ bloc of potential partners, again, well behind at 54-55 seats.

While these projections will need to be tested in the actual vote count over the coming days, this still leaves Netanyahu short of a 61-seat majority and his path to forming a government is unclear, meaning a fourth election still remains very possible should Netanyahu fail to convince other parties to join a narrow coalition or form a national unity government.

On the other hand, Blue and White’s path to forming a government alone is practically non-existent, and it lost the advantage it held after the last election in September 2019, when it received more votes than the Likud.

How to explain Netanyahu’s resurgence, particularly in light of the fact that he has been indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, with hearings set to begin on March 17?

And how is it that Blue and White somehow retreated from the achievements it had accumulated in elections last April and September?

The key to understanding the shift is to remember a significant group supporting Gantz were Likud voters that parted ways with Netanyahu over his criminal cases. Many of these voters simply came back home to the Likud, which is why – when polls began to shift in Likud’s favour some two weeks ago – Blue and White simultaneously registered a corresponding drop in support.

But why did these Likud voters return from Blue and White’s “anyone but Netanyahu” party to the “only Bibi” party? Did they somehow change their minds about the validity of the case against Netanyahu?

Perhaps a few did. Almost certainly however, more of them were won over by the Likud’s campaign mantra that” Gantz can’t form a government without [the Arab and far-left Joint List party’s polarising Ta’al faction leader] Ahmed Tibi.”

In other words, the Likud argued, and its pool of current and former supporters apparently agreed, that Gantz had no path to a centre-left government without the support – even tacitly – of the Joint List, a party which had already said it would predicate any support for Gantz with a moratorium on retaliatory strikes against terrorist bases in the Gaza Strip, among other problematic demands.

Meanwhile, Gantz’s hope was to pull so far ahead of the Likud that the pragmatic ultra-Orthodox parties would be ready to join a coalition led by Blue and White. Yet in order to continue growing his party, Gantz needed to attract thousands more Likud defectors. To this end, his campaign tried its best to attack Netanyahu, even comparing him to illiberal autocrats like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Ergodan. Such attacks backfired, interpreted as wild exaggeration and a sign of desperation.

In contrast, the Likud campaign’s spotlight on Gantz’s potential dependence on the Joint List worked like a charm, and on two levels. It deterred more Likud voters from bolting to Blue and White while sowing doubt in the minds of those who had already left Likud over the wisdom of having done so.

Above all, it appears Israeli voters were motivated by the desire to avoid a fourth election, and the Likud made a good argument that the safest bet for achieving a coalition would be to coalesce around the familiar and stable coalition framework that guided Israel through the past decade of relative calm and economic prosperity – a centre-right or national unity government anchored by the Likud.

There are other subplots to this election: The Joint List’s impressive Arab turnout, largely in a negative response to US President Trump’s “Deal of the Century” peace framework but also a sign of the younger generation’s desire for greater participation in the Knesset; the electoral failure of the Zionist left; the stagnation of the pro-settler right; and the repeated failure of the far-right Jewish Power party to enter the Knesset.

But the results from yesterday’s election for the 23rd Knesset should be seen, more than anything else, as an expression of resolve by an exhausted nation to keep the election for the 24th Knesset as far away as possible.

Tags: ,

RELATED ARTICLES

Image: Shutterstock

Media Matters: The ABC’s blind spot

Aug 17, 2025 | Fresh AIR
Fighters and military vehicles belonging to Syrian government forces intervene in the city of Sweida to enforce a ceasefire between Druze factions and Bedouin tribes. Syria, July 20, 2025 (Image: Shutterstock)

Druze crisis tested Israel’s Syria strategy

Jul 31, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR
Image: Shutterstock

Media Matters: Smoke and Ire over IHRA

Jul 30, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR
President Bill Clinton walks Prime Minister Ehud Barak of Israel and Yasser Arafat of the Palestinian Authority at Camp David, Maryland, July 2000 (Image: Wikipedia)

The silver anniversary of the silver bullet

Jul 29, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR
A protest in response to the death in detention of Mahsa Amini by Iran's morality police in Tehran (Image: Tolga Ildun/ Shutterstock)

Diaspora Iranians hope for more attention to the plight of the Iranian people

Jul 24, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR
Image: Shutterstock

An AIJAC letter the Sydney Morning Herald refused to publish

Jul 14, 2025 | Featured, Fresh AIR
D11a774c 2a47 C987 F4ce 2d642e6d9c8d

Bibi in DC, the Houthi threat and the politicised ICJ opinion

Jul 26, 2024 | Update
Image: Shutterstock

Nine months after Oct. 7: Where Israel stands now

Jul 10, 2024 | Update
Palestinian Red Crescent workers from Al-Najjar Hospital in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip (Image: Shutterstock)

Hamas’ impossible casualty figures

Mar 28, 2024 | Update
455daec3 C2a8 8752 C215 B7bd062c6bbc

After the Israel-Hamas ceasefire for hostages deal

Nov 29, 2023 | Update
Screenshot of Hamas bodycam footage as terrorists approach an Israeli vehicle during the terror organisation's October 7, 2023 attack in southern Israel, released by the IDF and GPO (Screenshot)

Horror on Video / International Law and the Hamas War

Oct 31, 2023 | Update
Sderot, Israel. 7th Oct, 2023. Bodies of dead Israelis lie on the ground following the attacks of Hamas (Image: Ilia Yefimovich/dpa/Alamy Live News)

Israel’s Sept. 11, only worse

Oct 11, 2023 | Update
Screenshot 2025 08 29 At 7.49.54 am

IRGC has ‘dramatically increased’ number of global operations: Bren Carlill on Sky News

Aug 29, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot

Australia-Israel relationship “at its lowest ebb”: Joel Burnie on Sky News

Aug 21, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot

“Disappointed but not shocked” by Tony Burke’s comments: Jamie Hyams on Sky News

Aug 20, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot

Australia-US relationship at ‘record low’ following ‘concerning’ Palestine move: Joel Burnie on Sky News

Aug 16, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot 2025 08 13 At 11.01.48 am

Australia recognising Palestine more about ‘punishing Israel’ – Joel Burnie on Sky News

Aug 13, 2025 | Featured, Video
Screenshot

Jewish community feels ‘disappointment’ with Anthony Albanese: Colin Rubenstein on Sky News

Aug 12, 2025 | Featured, Video

RECENT POSTS

Image: Screenshot/ ABC News

Australia taking a decisive step toward protecting its Jewish and Iranian communities

Screenshot 2025 08 29 At 7.49.54 am

IRGC has ‘dramatically increased’ number of global operations: Bren Carlill on Sky News

Image: Khamenei.ir

AIJAC welcomes steps against Iran and IRGC following revelation of their role in antisemitic attacks in Australia

More than 1,000 truckloads of aid waiting to be picked up inside Gaza at the Kerem Shalom crossing on June 18, 2024 (Source: COGAT)

Fact Sheet: Aid into Gaza

The theft of aid has gravely affected humanitarian efforts (Image: X)

Gaza ‘famine’ claims obscure the truth, and the lies are increasing hatred

SORT BY TOPICS