Egypt under a Muslim Brotherhood President
June 29, 2012
This Update focuses on new analysis from noted experts on the likely trajectory of Egypt under its new President, Muhammed Morsi from the Muslim Brotherhood.
First is Eric Trager, the expert on Egyptian domestic politics for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who discusses whether the democratic election victory of the Brotherhood means that it will now behave as a democratic party. Trager discusses considerable evidence of undemocratic behaviour by the Brotherhood and their supporters during the lead-up to the election, including signals that the Brotherhood intended to fight for a Morsi victory by any means necessary if he failed to win.
Iran nuclear talks go nowhere/ Iran and Syria
June 22, 2012
As readers are probably aware, the third round of “P5+1” talks with Iran over its nuclear program took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week in Moscow and ended not only with no sign of an agreement, but without any clear plans for further high-level talks. This Update deals with what happened in Moscow and the implications of the talks’ failure.
First up, Barak Ravid of Haaretz receives some insights into the exact nature of the discussions from an anonyomous participating diplomat. He says that the Western states attempted to correct an Iranian belief that they were interested in a deal at any cost, while the Iranians were vague and unhelpful in discussing plans to limit their enrichment of uranium to 20% – which is, in terms of technical difficulty, almost bomb grade – and refused to discuss the fate of the secretly-built underground Fordo enrichment complex at all.
Egypt’s Uncertain Post-Election Future
June 21, 2012
This Update deals with the aftermath of events in Egypt over the weekend – both the run-off presidential election (which the Muslim Brotherhood’s Muhammed Morsi claims to have narrowly won, though his opponent, Ahmed Shafiq, makes the same claim, but election authorities are reviewing appeals and it is not clear when an official announcement will be made ), and the military’s announcement of a temporary constitutional arrangement which effectively strips the Presidency of most of its power.