Morsi’s “coup” against the military in Egypt
August 15, 2012
This Update deals with the dramatic announcement by Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi made on Sunday, firing the defence minister and all the heads of the armed forces – the major competing centre of power through the transitional military council SCAF – and also heavily strengthening his own constitutional power via a decree altering the interim constitutional arrangements.
Syria’s Civil War after PM’s Defection
August 13, 2012
The defection of Syria’s Prime Minister, Riad Hijab, to Jordan and the rebel side earlier this week – the latest in a string of high profile defections from the regime – has raised speculation that the bloody civil war there has turned a corner. This Update focuses on analysis of where things now stand in Syria, and how the changing situation might affect Western policy calculations.
First up is an argument for changing policies in the wake of the latest developments in Syria in an editorial from the Washington Post. The paper notes the defection of Mr. Hijab and also an International Crisis Group report which makes it clear, correctly, that the regime is long past agreeing to compromise or agreeing to a “managed transition – while the longer the civil war goes on the less likely a democratic and pluralist government will follow.
The Sinai Vacuum
August 9, 2012
This Update is dedicated to the implications of the latest large-scale attack from Sinai into Israel on Sunday, which left 16 Egyptian soldiers dead, but caused no casualties in Israel. A good introduction to the news about the attack and its immediate aftermath appeared in Sharyn Mittleman’s “Fresh Air” blog post on Tuesday – this Update will focus on the wider Sinai problem of a power vacuum increasingly being filled by violent extremist groups highlighted by this latest attack.