UPDATES
The implications of the postponed Palestinian election
Sep 14, 2016
Update from AIJAC
Sept. 14, 2016
Update 09/16 #03
This Update deals with the background and possible serious implications of the decision last Thursday by the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) high court to postpone municipal elections scheduled for Oct. 8 – a significant event which sadly was barely reported in the Australian media. These were to be the first competitive elections in the Palestinian territories in almost a decade, and looked to see a major contest between the Fatah party, which controls the West Bank, and Hamas, which rules Gaza. Now they have been postponed at least until December, and, based on recent Palestinian history, may be delayed much longer or never happen at all.
First up, we get a discussion of how Fatah and Hamas are approaching the postponement from Times of Israel Palestinian Affairs correspondent Avi Isscharoff. He says both sides had something to lose in the planned poll – Fatah facing Hamas gains in the West Bank, Hamas fearing Fatah gains in Gaza towns – but that the risk for Hamas was probably higher, with signs of rising discontent in Gaza according to Palestinian analysts. Isscharoff also explains that it is doubtful that the court decision was orchestrated by PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who had other recent opportunities to cancel the poll, but rejected calls to do so. For all the background of the Hamas-Fatah manoeuvring that has surrounded this election, CLICK HERE
Next up, Ben Lynfield of the Jerusalem Post argues that the poll cancellation should be seen as a blow to the already shaky leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. Like Issacharoff, he also cites Palestinian analysts who say both Fatah and Hamas feared the poll would undermine their rule, but argues that Abbas was relying on the elections to gain a badly-needed legitimacy boost. Lynfield also says that, contrary to optimistic hopes that the poll process would begin to heal the Hamas-Fatah rift in Palestinian society, if anything, the polling process and then cancellation have done the opposite. For all the details of his argument, CLICK HERE
Finally, Palestinian affairs experts Jonathan Schanzer and Grant Rumley identify a potentially deeper political crisis brewing in the West Bank, which the election cancellation has only worsened. They particularly point to recent demonstrations in Nablus against PA rule, sparked by the killing of a suspect by Palestinian security forces, as a sign that the PA may be losing its grip on power. They say that the uncertainty over who may succeed the 81-year-old Abbas is also contributing to the instability, and a key way to stablise things is for Fatah to show a credible plan for succession. For this important warning from two very knowledgeable analysts, CLICK HERE
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Tags: Palestinians