In the Media

The US president is disliked by many, but the only reason the war stopped is because of America’s might, his distinct style and his willingness to use leverage.

Australian Financial Review  – October 10, 2025

Given the context of two years of Hamas-Israel fighting, the agreement signed on Thursday to end the war appears very hopeful.

Much could still go wrong, not least that only “phase 1” of the deal has been signed and negotiations for subsequent phases haven’t even started, but there are more reasons for hope than at any time during the past two years. Here’s why.

Israel’s objective in this war was to retrieve the hostages and remove Hamas from Gaza. All the hostages – living and dead – are being released upfront. The Trump 20-point plan, upon which the negotiations are based, specifies that Hamas will have no role in Gaza. So, assuming Hamas holds to the agreement, Israel’s objectives have been achieved.

As for Hamas, its immediate objectives beyond its survival are to secure the release of terrorists held in Israeli prisons and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. As part of the phase 1 agreement, Israel will release 2000 prisoners, including 250 who are serving life sentences for murder. It will also withdraw from parts of Gaza.

Future phases will see further withdrawals, but Trump’s plan includes a permanent security zone around Gaza’s periphery. Whether this is occupied by Israeli forces, or merely becomes a no-go zone (with sensors to detect tunnels) is to be negotiated.

Beyond most of their wartime objectives being realised, the key reason fighting is unlikely to resume is because of the immense pressure being brought on Israel, and the isolation suddenly experienced by Hamas.

Trump does not want the fighting to resume, and he holds immense leverage over Israel. This is both because America, unlike most other Western countries, including Australia, actually stood by Israel during these last two years, and also because the US president is willing to use that leverage to punish Israel if he deems it necessary. Israel would need to have an enormously important reason to restart the campaign against Trump’s wishes.

Meanwhile, two of Hamas’ three backers – Qatar and Turkey, with Iran not part of this – have also been effectively leveraged by the US. Whether it was security guarantees for Qatar or the promise of F-35s and other military kit for Turkey, the US has successfully won these countries’ compliance and, with it, their pressure on Hamas.

Hamas, which has always used Gazan suffering for tactical advantage, was free to continue this war so long as it had external friends. Now, two of its three friends have effectively told it to stop the war. Hamas doesn’t really have a choice.

Trump’s personality might be disliked by many, but the only reason the war has stopped is because of a combination of America’s might, his distinct style and his willingness to use leverage in negotiations.

That’s the hopeful part. What comes next is more precarious. To get a sense of why, it is useful to look at each side’s strategic objectives.

Hamas’ strategic objective is to destroy Israel and replace it with an Islamist dictatorship. This is clearly laid out in its founding charter. It’s worth noting that, in its announcement accepting the 20-point plan and Thursday’s agreement, Hamas specifically said that it remained faithful to its charter.

And that charter includes the following: “Initiatives and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences are in contradiction to the principles of Hamas … There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavours.”

Israel’s strategic objective is to be left alone. It has long known that it is surrounded by enemies that wish to destroy it. It has typically allowed these organisations to exist as long as they don’t attack it. After October 7, Israel’s strategic posture has changed; it is no longer willing to allow enemies with existential designs to exist at all. It will do what it can to undermine them and render them incapable.

Given this is the case, any sign that Hamas is reconstituting its abilities in Gaza will elicit an Israeli response. Part of the Trump 20-point plan is the creation of an “international stabilisation force” that will not only police Gaza in the interim period, but also actively enforce Hamas’ demilitarisation. Since neither Hamas nor Israel will change their strategic objectives, the ability and willingness of this force to do this and not merely look the other way, as UN forces in Lebanon always did with Hezbollah, is the key determining factor as to the success of the end-of-war agreement holding.

Even as phase 1 of the agreement is being implemented, each side is jockeying ahead of phase 2 negotiations. But the phase 1 agreement is remarkably close to what the 20-point plan envisions, and as long as Trump remains closely focused on phase 2, there is real hope, for the first time in two years, that this war might be over.

And, even more hopefully, that, after two decades, Hamas’ violent reign of terror in Gaza might finally be coming to an end.