IN THE MEDIA
Why Labor risks making the wrong call on Palestine recognition
July 31, 2025 | Bren Carlill
Australian Financial Review – 31 July 2025
The sudden rush by powerful Western countries to recognise Palestine is the result of a combination of the terrible situation in Gaza and domestic political pressure.
It is not about peace, nor even Palestinian statehood. Premature recognition won’t bring about either.
Palestine is not and never has been a state, leaving only three reasons why countries would recognise it: rewarding Palestinians; punishing Israel; or virtue signalling.
The Palestinian Authority was established to prepare the ground for statehood, but has entirely failed.
Polls show that Palestinians are scared of criticising it. There haven’t been elections for 19 years. It is hopelessly corrupt, so foreign investors stay away. It has indoctrinated its people to hate Israel. It keeps losing control of cities to armed gangs, not least the Gaza Strip to Hamas in 2007. And it has refused to enter peace negotiations since 2014.
Every now and then the PA makes noises about reform and elections, but never follows through. It did this again in June, and a statement issued by multiple foreign ministers (including ours) earlier this week clutched at this as justification for moving on recognition.
But Palestinian leaders do not want to end corruption or autocracy, and will need to be dragged kicking and screaming into any genuine reform process. Recognition could be the reward for completing reforms, but if it’s given prematurely, you can guarantee that no meaningful change will take place.
Israel is seen by many as responsible for the moribund peace process. It shares some blame, but not most of it. The Palestinian leadership has turned down five offers of statehood because the West has consistently taught them that violence and rejectionism is always repaid with diplomatic largesse and pressure on Israel.
Western recognition of Palestine is therefore not a new message. It will be seen by Palestinians as a reward for the October 7, 2023 attacks, even if that’s not what the West intends.
The war in Gaza is terrible, as is the humanitarian situation. The lack of an Israeli “day after” plan has made things far more complicated than they should be. But that doesn’t change the fact that it has been Hamas that keeps turning down ceasefire offers.
Why wouldn’t they? Every time they do, the West pressures Israel to make yet more concessions, and the situation grows worse in Gaza, which further increases pressure on Israel.
Britain’s threat of recognition unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire is especially ludicrous because it proves to Hamas that its tactics work, reinforcing the message that violence and rejectionism bring Western reward.
A subset of Labor’s rank-and-file has been vociferously anti-Israel for some time. The combination of images from Gaza, social media algorithms and wilful ignorance has seen anger grow. They want movement. They want Israel punished. Maybe they honestly think recognition will help Palestinians or peace.
But it won’t, and Labor’s leaders know this. Leadership requires staring down the mob and explaining why principles and peace matter. Does Prime Minister Anthony Albanese really think the Israel-haters will be satisfied by recognition? They’ll pocket it, be encouraged their tactics work, and demand more.
Premature recognition is short-sighted and self-defeating, regardless of the motivations for doing it.
The difficult but correct alternative is continuing to insist that the foundations for peace are properly established – as the Prime Minister has suggested in some of his recent comments. First, Hamas rule over Gaza must end. Second is Palestinian societal recognition of Israel’s permanence. Third is a Palestinian Authority that is both economically and politically viable.
Politically expedient shortcuts will make the situation worse. Do we want a viable Palestinian state, or just the warm glow of self-righteousness?
