In the Media

While Israel won the military battle, and Hamas will glory in the horrors of October 7, Gaza’s civilians were undoubtedly the big losers of this conflict.

Australian Financial Review – Jan 16, 2025 

After more than 15 months of brutal Israel-Hamas war, started by Hamas’ barbaric campaign of unprovoked massacres and kidnappings on October 7, 2023, the end may finally be in sight, with the announcement of a staged ceasefire deal.

Periodically, over the deal’s first stage, lasting six weeks, Hamas is to release 33 hostages, mainly women, children, the elderly and the unwell. Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners jailed for terrorism for every civilian hostage, and 50 Palestinian detainees for every Israeli female soldier. Israel will also gradually withdraw its troops from large parts of Gaza.

On the 16th day, negotiations are to resume regarding the exchange of the remaining hostages and bodies of those killed, as well as the terms of an end to the war. Many things could still go wrong. Israel profoundly opposes Hamas’ determination to remain in control of Gaza, an outcome most in the West, including Australia, also say is unacceptable. Furthermore, Hamas has repeatedly reneged on past undertakings.

On the Israeli side, many, including ministers in the governing coalition, oppose the deal, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have sufficient support in both his cabinet and the parliament to get the initial deal through.

So why now, especially considering Israel proposed a similar deal last July? As US President Joe Biden said, Israel’s continued military pressure on Hamas played a large part. There was also the loss or weakening of Hamas’ allies, with Israel’s comprehensive defeat of Hezbollah late last year, and the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria.

In addition, Israel’s air raids on Iran exposed the weakness of Hamas’ main sponsors in Tehran. All this quashed Hamas’ hopes the conflict would expand.

Moreover, Hamas’ concern over the threats from US President-elect Donald Trump should not be understated. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a January 4 interview in The New York Times that whenever there was daylight between the US and Israel or international pressure on Israel, Hamas backtracked from a hostage deal. Blinken also described the absence of world pressure on Hamas to surrender and release the hostages as “astounding”.

Winners and losers

The Australian government will no doubt hope the ceasefire removes the heat from the conflict as an election issue, but it probably comes too late for that. Those who regard the very existence of the Jewish state as an outrage still won’t have forgiven the government for its supposed “complicity” in its “genocide”.

Those of us who see the government as having betrayed a democratic partner at its time of greatest need, and of not being sufficiently robust against antisemitism, or even inadvertently encouraging it, will no doubt also take those concerns to the ballot box.

So, who were the winners and losers? Gaza’s civilians were undoubtedly the big losers. Despite Israel’s efforts to avoid civilian casualties with warnings and evacuations – described by military experts as beyond what any other army would do – Hamas’ abhorrent human shield tactics ensured there would be thousands killed and massive destruction. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar wrote several times to colleagues assuring them that civilian casualties were a “necessary sacrifice” and would lead to the liberation of Palestine.

Hamas will glory in the horrors of October 7. It will claim it won because it survived. However, it hoped to ignite a wider war with Israel which would be attacked with equal force from all sides and ultimately destroyed. So while Israel was attacked on several fronts, Hamas failed in that aim. It also hoped to at least remain able to attack Israel with repeated viciousness, as its leaders stated. Here it also came up short.

It did, however, succeed in damaging Israel’s international reputation, with its human shield tactics and exaggeration and distortion of civilian casualty figures bearing fruit. The international community played into the terrorists’ hands, including via UN resolutions that condemned Israel and demanded a Palestinian state. This was similarly seen in the farcical accusation made by the International Criminal Court that Israel had engaged in genocide and war crimes.

Having to release thousands of terrorists, including many who killed Israelis, for the hostages is a loss [for Israel]

This is despite the combatant-to-civilian casualty ratio of about one to one in the conflict being better than in other recent urban warfare campaigns. Hamas leaders would also have been pleased with the worldwide surge in antisemitism that its terrorism prompted.

Israel clearly won the military battle, killing and imprisoning many thousands of Hamas terrorists, including most top leaders, and destroying vast amounts of military infrastructure and quantities of weapons. However, having to release thousands of terrorists overall, including many who killed Israelis, for the hostages is a loss, as is the failure to dismantle Hamas.

Ultimately, we won’t know the full outcome for years. Following previous wars, Hamas rebuilt its military infrastructure using stolen material that was intended to reconstruct houses. This included a tunnel system longer than London’s Underground and the use of water pipes for rockets.

Hamas must never again be allowed to devote Gaza’s resources and people to terrorism, steal humanitarian aid to sell at exorbitant prices, use the Gaza school system to incite hatred of Israel or retain any role in governing Gaza. If it does, it wins, and we all lose – especially Gaza’s civilians.