Transcript

[Speaker 6]

The emotions now in Israel are so strong that I can’t see Benjamin Netanyahu surviving.

[Station ID]

Hack On Triple J.

[Dave Marchese]

A huge strike is taking place right now in Israel. It’s expected to impact businesses, banks, hospitals, transport, even schools and it comes after massive protests in Israel overnight with tens of thousands of people rallying after six hostages were found dead in Gaza.

[Speaker 10]

We’re grieving the death of six hostages. They should have come back alive.

Finger on the trigger was Hamas but the person behind these murders is our Prime Minister.

[Speaker 14]

The government should resign, they should all resign and we should have elections and someone should come who can protect us.

[Speaker 8]

Tens of thousands of people have been out on the streets across Israel in protest.

[Speaker 9]

One of the most devastating days in the last 11 months. My heart is broken.

[Station ID]

Hack On Triple J.

[Dave Marchese]

So what does all this mean for ceasefire negotiations, for what’s happening in Gaza and Benjamin Netanyahu’s future? Well, Dr Ran Porat is a lecturer and analyst on Israel and Middle Eastern Affairs at Monash University and he’s with us now.

Ran thank you very much for joining us on Hack. I mean Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing a lot of pressure for a while. How serious is this latest protest and strike movement when it comes to his future?

[Dr Ran Porat]

So hi Dave. It’s very serious although I tend to, you should understand that you can never bet against Netanyahu in Israeli politics. That will be a losing bet.

So the mass protest, people being fed up with what they see as political maneuvers slowing down or even blocking possible agreement with Hamas because of Netanyahu’s insistence on various issues of the negotiations, specifically something called the Philadelphi Corridor. That is the 14 kilometers of border on the southern part of Gaza that Hamas used in the past 15 years to smuggle people, weapons, money, drugs, you name it. So the control of that area is from Netanyahu’s point of view vital.

On the other hand Hamas, which we know is a terrorist organization that is responsible for the October 7th massacre, wants to keep control of that area or gain control of that area in any ceasefire deal because they want the ability to rehabilitate themselves through that corridor with all the smuggling from Sinai Desert into the Gaza Strip. So Netanyahu is adamant that he won’t move on this point. But the people around him, the negotiators, the Israeli negotiators, the mediators, US, Qatar and Egypt, are saying that his insistence is causing major problems in completing any deal, which now doesn’t look like it’s close.

[Dave Marchese]

So how volatile is it in the Israeli government at the moment? Is there a lot of division? Are people not happy with him?

Do we know what voters think about him?

[Dr Ran Porat]

That’s an interesting thing. If you run polls in Israel until, I would say, two months ago, Netanyahu would barely get any support. Now his support numbers are much higher than expected.

It’s not that he’s going to win the elections. He’s not. But he holds on to his position, and elections are not expected for another at least two years in Israel, unless the government falls down beforehand.

And for that to happen, inside his 64 members of the parliament, Knesset, majority, you need at least four, if not five, to defect to the opposition. And that doesn’t seem likely, because all these members of the coalition, current coalition, know that in any next election, they’ll be out of office, because they’re so unpopular since October 7th. They’re being blamed, accused of responsibility for that catastrophe.

And they’re actually behaving quite insensitively towards the very, very touching and sad issue of the hostages.

[Dave Marchese]

How likely is it, do you think, that these protests and the strike that we’re seeing, that’s starting right now and is expected to continue all day in Israel, affecting so many parts of life, that that is going to force some action from Netanyahu to change his tactics? Because we have seen big protests in Israel before. Before October 7, there were big protests against Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.

How likely do you think this will be to change for how he’s running the country?

[Dr Ran Porat]

I would say not very likely. The one time that such a mass protest, including with the major unions, happened was a year and a half ago, and it forced Netanyahu to reverse his decision to fire the defence minister, Yoav Galant. And now that defence minister is like the voice of reason inside the government, his fierce opposition.

But this is not the same thing. This is, from Netanyahu’s perspective, this is a do-or-die, I shall not move from that position about the Philadelphi corridor and other issues. And he’s actually playing down the possibility of a deal, saying, I would say, some degree of correctness, that Hamas is actually rejecting the deal.

Hamas has maximalist demands, such as the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces or not giving up enough details about the hostages in their hands. And we’ve seen what Hamas is. Hamas executed at the last minute hostages about to be freed.

So yes, Netanyahu has lots of responsibility for what is happening. Those mass protests are painful for him. Of course, this is a democracy, but I don’t think they’ll change his basic policies, as he has enough political power behind him to continue in what he believes is correct.

[Dave Marchese]

All right. Well, we appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining us.

Dr. Ran Porat from Monash University. Thanks for coming on Hack.