In the Media

Canberra Times – 15 March 2025

The Hamas-Israel ceasefire impasse reveals the Catch-22 at the heart of the war: Israel wants its hostages back and Hamas removed from Gaza, but Hamas – which sees the hostages as its main asset – won’t release them if that means losing its dominance in the Strip.

Resolving this dilemma is the only way to see Gaza rebuilt for the benefit of its inhabitants.

The first phase of the ceasefire has now concluded, with 25 living and eight murdered Israeli hostages returned to Israel, in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Negotiations are now under way to extend phase 1 or move into phase 2.

With US backing, Israel is upping the pressure on Hamas, including through an aid embargo, and threatening a return to fighting. It is seeking to overcome Hamas’s intransigence and break the current impasse.

Hamas’s complete removal from Gaza is not just an Israeli demand. It is, as the Australian government acknowledges, necessary for regional stability.

Why Gaza cannot be rebuilt with Hamas

Why is Hamas’s removal so important?

Hamas is not a movement that seeks a two-state outcome. Its ideology is rooted in the religious imperative of Israel’s destruction.

Like al-Qaeda, it draws historical parallels between Israel and the Crusaders. Muslim forces took nearly two centuries to drive the Crusaders from the Holy Land. In Hamas’s worldview, every conflict with Israel is just another battle in a similarly long war – designed to wear Israelis down until they leave.

But what Hamas has never grasped is that, unlike the Crusaders, Jews are indigenous to the region. Israel is not going anywhere.

Hamas’s religious commitment to eternal warfare is the reason peace requires its expulsion from Gaza. If it remains – even if weakened – it will use any aid intended to rebuild Gaza to regroup, rearm and, ultimately, restart hostilities.

Indeed, Hamas has co-opted Gaza’s aid economy for two decades. Hamas routinely steals aid and sells it on the black market. In the last few weeks, dozens of videos have emerged of Hamas shooting civilians that resisted its stealing of food aid.

Hamas’s diversion of cement is why many buildings destroyed in previous rounds of conflict weren’t rebuilt, but hundreds of kilometres of tunnels were. These tunnels were built under civilian neighbourhoods with entrances in mosques and schools.

Hamas’s intimidation ensured that few reported on its diversion of funds or smuggling of weapons. Thus, whole wings of hospitals were no-go zones for civilians, while a Hamas data centre was built directly beneath a UN agency’s Gaza headquarters, with electrical conduits disappearing through the floor to power it.

It’s clear that attempting to rebuild Gaza while Hamas is there will only recreate the conditions that led to the current war. Donor countries are aware of this, and will be reticent about providing the billions in aid that Gaza’s civilians so desperately need for as long as Hamas retains control.

So, how do we remove Hamas from Gaza?

By leaning on Qatar and Egypt.

Qatar is Hamas’s primary Arab backer. It hosts most of Hamas’s external leadership and has helped bankroll its operations. It is in the strongest position to facilitate Hamas’s departure. The US has significant leverage over Qatar and should communicate that its continued support for Hamas comes with serious strategic consequences.

Egypt shares a land border with Gaza, and holds the keys as to who and what can enter or leave. While Cairo is no fan of Hamas, it also sees value in keeping it as a tool to pressure Israel, and, currently, at least, has no appetite to pay the political and military costs of taking Hamas on.

The Egyptian government’s proposal for the future of Gaza, revealed last week, amounts to a ‘Hezbollah model’, where a technocratic government rules Gaza, but Hamas remains armed and financially powerful in the background.

The Hezbollah model is so-named for the grip the eponymous terrorist organisation had over Lebanon until recently. By dint of its powerful militia, Hezbollah had veto power over government decisions, despite not being part of the government. Lebanon became a failed state.

Removing Hamas’s leaders from Gaza will not remove its ideology. There will still be Gazans determined to fight Israel to the death. Thus, replacing Hamas with the right government is as important as removing Hamas in the first place.

There is no easy way to achieve this. But whoever takes over must be willing to coexist with Israel. They must also be willing to enforce this, including by dealing with any Islamists that try to challenge it. Finally, they must resist the endemic corruption that has mired the rule of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank; corruption is a key reason why the Palestinian Authority has no legitimacy amongst Palestinians.

A world weary of Israeli-Palestinian violence must use all the tools at its disposal to find a way to replace Hamas with someone willing to live alongside Israel. Only then will a peaceful and successful future for Gazans be possible.

Dr Bren Carlill is the director of special projects at the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council