Fresh Air

Today’s AIJAC Iran war update once again brings you rare and exclusive interviews and analysis from both the English and Hebrew Israeli media, along with a glimpse into the lives of Israelis under missile attack.

 

Today’s update includes:

• In Israel Hayom English, former National Security Advisor Meir Ben-Shabbat writes about the war’s opportunity to end the Iranian aggression that has long threatened the region
• On Kan Reshet Bet radio, Major General (Res.) Yossi Baidatz talks about how Iran’s humiliation from the Israeli attack may affect the war’s exit strategy
• Ynet’s Yoav Zitun looks at why achieving the war’s goals may pivot on whether the US will drop a bunker-busing bomb on Fordow
• Walla’s senior military analyst Amir Bohbot reports on a new IDF division on the Jordanian border to prevent possible Iranian commando infiltrations
• On Army Radio, Afternoon Diary host Yaron Vilensky sheds light on an organisation that is saving lives by renovating disused bomb shelters

 

This is an historic opportunity to eliminate the Iranian threat

Israel must aim not only for a devastating blow to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, but also for effective enforcement mechanisms that will prevent the Islamic Republic from rebuilding its military and strategic power for many years to come.

Meir Ben-Shabbat

Israel Hayom, June 16, 2025

The Israeli operation has left the regime in Tehran stunned. The boldness of the move, the depth of the intelligence penetration, the quality and variety of operational capabilities, the breadth of the theater of operations, the pace of strikes and assassinations, the number of targets hit, and the absolute freedom of action in the airspacem alongside the replication of the scenes from Gaza and Beirut, now playing out in Tehran, all of this has far exceeded what the Iranians thought possible within what they had expected from a “strike on the Iranian nuclear program.”

The regime’s failure to protect its personnel and assets adds to its failure to deter Israel or prevent and disrupt the assault. Images of thousands of Tehran residents fleeing the city and reports of Russian President Vladimir Putin warning Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei about the peril facing his regime have brought humiliation. Since the start of the operation, the chain of events has exposed the regime’s weakness, not only in the eyes of its own citizens but also to the proxy forces under its patronage and to the countries of the region. The greater the Israeli achievement, the deeper the embarrassment for Iran.

We have reason to be proud of our accomplishments, but under no circumstances should we fall into complacency or overconfidence. The mission is far from over. The ayatollah regime has already proven during its war with Iraq its ability to endure prolonged hardship, even at a high cost. It is less sensitive to attrition when it is the target, and it regularly uses such tactics against its enemies. Furthermore, it is not bound by the moral restraints that the West has imposed on itself. The recent missile launches targeting densely populated areas in Israel served only to reaffirm this reality. It is safe to assume that Iran’s security apparatuses will use any means, target, or theater to exact revenge and restore its honor. Israeli security forces are no doubt preparing accordingly.

Still, Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal – its primary tool for establishing strategic symmetry – is not limitless. In the course of the fighting thus far, it has launched several hundred, and likely lost several hundred more in Israeli strikes. Given the current situation, it is presumed that Iran will struggle to replenish its stockpiles, limiting its ability to maintain the rate of fire we have seen and to rebalance the asymmetry that is forming vis-à-vis the Israel Defense Forces. While Iran still possesses an additional arsenal of cruise missiles, UAVs, and possibly other strategic projectiles, the challenge they pose is not equivalent to that of the ballistic missiles, whether due to their quantity or performance capabilities. The geographic distance that once posed a challenge to Israel may now become an advantage.

The toppling of the Iranian regime or destabilizing it has not been defined by Israel’s Diplomatic-Security Cabinet as an explicit goal of the operation. That is understandable. Nonetheless, in Israel and in parts of the region and the West, the hope that such an outcome will occur, albeit not as a direct or immediate consequence, is hardly concealed.

It is difficult to predict the tipping point for authoritarian regimes. We saw that clearly in the cascade of collapses during what was dubbed the “Arab Spring.” And we needn’t look that far back: Just six months ago, the world was stunned by the rapid collapse of the Syrian regime following a short surprise attack by opposition forces. This, of course, was aided by Israel’s earlier defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and by the long-term erosion of Assad’s rule since the 2011 outbreak of Syria’s civil war. The lesson here is not only how hard it is to pinpoint the moment of collapse, but also the cumulative impact of repeated blows, weaknesses, and cracks.

In any case, the primary declared goals of the operation are to remove the nuclear threat and the strategic threat posed by Iran’s ballistic missile program. Israel’s actions thus far are progressing as planned, achieving their designated tactical objectives—and more. Reports of significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan are encouraging. The targeting of nuclear scientists is intended to deter other experts, those with or who may yet acquire similar knowledge, from joining any future efforts. A strike on the Fordow facility would leave Iran not only without its unique capabilities but also without a bargaining chip in any future negotiations, should they take place.

Do not push the US

The question of US involvement in offensive operations against Iran, within the framework of this campaign, is especially sensitive. While the US is offering diplomatic cover, supporting defense efforts, and supplying munitions, this is not the same as active offensive participation.

Israel is well aware of voices within the US warning against American entanglement in a war that is not theirs. It is also aware that, if the US does join, it will not limit itself to military action but will seek to shape the course of the campaign. Still, from Israel’s perspective, the balance of risks and benefits leans in favor of American involvement. As long as Israel can manage on its own, it would be wise to maintain the current policy and, at least officially, leave the decision entirely in the hands of President Donald Trump.

Exit strategy

Early talk of an exit strategy plays into the perception of Israel that took root before October 7: Impatient and unable to sustain prolonged conflict.

At this stage, Israel must continue to strike relentlessly, inflicting maximum damage in minimum time. This is the moment to severely impair Iran’s weapons development, research, and production capabilities and to strike at all branches of its strategic force.

It is not only acceptable but necessary to take a skeptical view of overtures from Iran or its allies about resuming negotiations with the US. If Israel is drawn into such talks, the appropriate response should be: “Negotiations only under fire.”

Israel must aim for the war to end not just with a devastating blow to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs but also with enforceable mechanisms that will, for many years, prevent the Islamic Republic from rebuilding its military and strategic capabilities. Operation Rising Lion is a historic opportunity to achieve that.

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Major General (Res.) Yossi Baidatz

Former head of the Research Department of Israeli Military Intelligence and the  IDF’s Command and Staff College

“Midday”, Kan Reshet Bet

June 16, 2025

Host Esty Perez Ben-Ami: Major General Baidatz, we discussed in the last few minutes, and in detail, with great interest, the online learning programs. I want to ask you about your perspective on the period we are in now, since Friday, Israel’s very large attack in Iran, and since the Iranian attack in Israel, how do you see this event, this very big historical event, as a Major General in the reserves?

Yossi Baidatz: This is indeed a historical event, and at the moment it is not even so important why the war began, and what its motives were, right now it is an open event. We need to plan, we need to create an appropriate strategy here, we need to create partners, but most importantly, we need to understand that this is an open event, and I am currently looking at this event, both in its development, and at the moment, because I have moved between the world of reserves, and the world of education, where I dedicate most of my time.

I think there is also a very, very strong connection between the resilience of the home front, and the way the home front perceives the leadership, perceives the military action, and as long as citizens understand more that this war is going in a clear direction, that its goals can truly be realized.

It has many goals that have accumulated over time, and recently the issue of nuclear weapons has really been added, and Iran, which is a source of a lot of evil, but many central issues have not been resolved, such as Gaza and the hostages in Gaza, and I think there are very high expectations among the public that these issues will be resolved.

In this sense, I think that after the truly deserved admiration for the opening of the war, I, for example, think about the war, or about an enemy like Iran in general, it is a state enemy, for many, many years the State of Israel has not dealt with a state enemy, with an ancient tradition.

It thinks differently, one must understand its way of thinking, and Iran is not a collection of targets, that if we only hit many targets, we will need to make some change there, we need to influence the leadership’s strategy, this is a leadership that currently feels humiliated…  and therefore its considerations are not necessarily considerations that we would perceive based on some Western rationale, but rather a different worldview, a different perception of time, their willingness to enter into attrition is different from ours.

I especially emphasize, I think it is wrong to view Iran as a collection of targets, that if we only hit them, we will change reality. What is needed here is also some dynamic of a broader global coalition, which will allow the Iranians a kind of solution from their side, that will not leave them only humiliated, to also take into account their overall goals, and this is after I think that this is a terrible regime today, a radical regime, with the most negative mystical beliefs in general, and towards Israel in particular, and yet we need to achieve strategic achievements in this war, and not just hit targets.

Esty Perez Ben-Ami: You talked about the leadership in Iran feeling humiliated, that there is no fear in your heart that because of this they will try to do even more extreme things, and if they have such an option, even to launch nuclear missiles at us?

Yossi Baidatz: I separate these things. There are many bad things they can do even before nuclear missiles, to the best of my knowledge, and it is not updated, Iran has no missiles with nuclear capabilities. So they can try to cause us damage with the best of the bad tools they currently possess, and I assume that the IDF is very aware of this, and is trying to deal with it.

The question is also about the day after. That is, on the day after, the decision to go and develop nuclear weapons using the existing capabilities will probably remain in their hands, and now the question is what alternatives will be placed in their hands, what system of constraints will they face, and here there will be a decision.

It’s a confrontation, it’s a competition of continuous learning, a competition of strategic learning, and therefore it depends on what coalition Israel will need to create, of course, what the role of the United States will be.

I am not revealing anything new to the public here, but I think this is exactly the stage now that is moving from a stage of hitting many targets, to a stage where a broad international coalition must be created against Iran.

Iran has friends, Russia, China is not alone in the world, it has friends that it also helped recently, and therefore the confrontation here is very complex.

 

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The bomb that could decide the campaign

Yoav Zitun

Ynet, June 17, 2025

[Excerpt]

Official Israeli security sources already revealed on Friday the expectation that the war with Iran would last about two weeks, with the Israeli hope being that during or at the end of it, the U.S. will join and strike the nuclear facilities. The IDF estimates that if this does not happen, then the Israeli achievement—alongside the heavy costs of the war—will be limited: the Israeli strikes will push Iran away from a nuclear bomb for several years, in the best-case scenario, and will reduce the threat of ballistic missiles, which according to Netanyahu is an existential threat in itself. Therefore, an American strike on the nuclear facilities holds immense importance in Israeli eyes. These could be carried out using a secret weapons system that the U.S. developed solely for itself, and which can also be used only with American aircraft.

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“By February 2026 we will have 25 trained battalions”: The new division on the Jordanian border

Amir Bohbot

Walla, June 17, 2025

[Excerpt]

The Eastern Division, under the command of Brigadier General Oren Simcha, was established in the past year and has succeeded in recruiting 12,000 new reservists into its ranks. Following the launch of the operation against Iran’s nuclear project and the concern over an extreme scenario, an emergency call-up of the division’s battalions was ordered, and the division was deployed along the Jordanian border.

The scenario for which the division’s battalions are preparing includes armed pro-Iranian Shiite militias who would depart Iraq in pickup trucks, travel through Syria, and reach the Jordanian border to carry out attacks against Israeli communities.

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Bat-Melech Steinberg, volunteer, “City of Refuge” project,

“Afternoon Diary”: Army Radio

June 16, 2025

Host Yaron Vilensky: Bat-Melech Steinberg, Shalom.

Bat-Melech Steinberg: Shalom, Shalom, good evening, good evening to the dear people of Israel.

Yaron Vilensky: And you volunteer in Bat Yam with the Osim Shechuna (“Making a Neighbourhood”) movement, what are you doing now in light of what happened there?

Bat-Melech Steinberg: That’s right, so I really volunteer at the Osim Shechuna movement, in a project called “City of Refuge.” The project started right when the attack began, we already got on a Zoom call, and basically we have volunteers across the country, restoring shelters that are basically in a state where there are cockroaches on the floor, lots and lots of equipment. Shelters in many places in the country are unusable, and there are hundreds of thousands of people who don’t have a shelter or protected area to go down to, so we come with volunteers from all over the country, and we clear, clean, make it fun, and make sure that every citizen has a protected area.

Yaron Vilensky: And what exactly do you offer people there?

Bat-Melech Steinberg: What do we offer? So first of all, we arrive, we knock on the door, everything we do in Osim Shechuna is in cooperation with the residents, and of course our ultimate goal is that every person will indeed have a shelter, but no less than that, we want to lift the spirit and hope, the smile, and really show what we are connected to, so we knock on doors, we talk to residents, so give us some examples of solutions you provided to people.

Okay, so first of all, I can tell you about today, I am now in Bat Yam exactly after a day of volunteering with 80 volunteers from all over the country, we were literally in the streets of the deal’s zone two days ago, and yesterday when I did a field tour, I basically arrive at shelters in buildings whose windows are broken, and you expect to see a usable shelter, I enter the shelter, I see lots and lots of equipment and garbage, of course today many volunteers came here, we arrived, we cleared the shelter, we fixed it up, we painted it, and here are the shelters we did today.

Yaron Vilensky: How many shelters have you already done?

Bat-Melech Steinberg: Today in Bat Yam we did 15 shelters.

Yaron Vilensky: Wow, 15 shelters in one day you renovated?

Bat-Melech Steinberg: Yes, wait, that’s just in Bat Yam, at the same time as us in Bat Yam, people are working in Ashdod, in Or Yehuda, in Rishon LeZion, in Petah Tikva, all over the country there are “City of Refuge” groups, of committed people.

Yaron Vilensky: Everyone volunteers, everyone comes to do it from the heart.

Bat-Melech Steinberg: Really, really.

Yaron Vilensky: Very nice, very nice.

Bat-Melech Steinberg: I want… yes, in the lesson. I want to call on you, all the people across the country, I know the situation can be scary and not easy, and I feel that the people who came today, it’s not because they’re not afraid, it’s mainly because there’s something that overcomes fear, and that’s the desire to truly give and do for those who live here, and I really invite you to come and join us.

We have Instagram, Facebook, Osim Shechuna.  just write “Osim Shechuna”, you’ll see all the connections. I’ll say that this is a call to come and volunteer, and no less than that, if you have a neighbour or someone you know who has an unusable shelter, we are here precisely for that.

It’s important for me to say that we are not looking for people to blame. It often happens that things happen, and you can say, wait, why isn’t someone taking care of this? No, no, no, no, no, no.

Yaron Vilensky: Don’t even start there, right?… Bat-Melech Steinberg, in the end there’s nothing like giving.

Bat-Melech Steinberg: Truly.

Yaron Vilensky: So let’s end with that. Thank you very much.

Bat-Melech Steinberg: Okay, thank you very much. Shalom.

Journalist’s Note: The organisation “Osim Shechuna” has an official website, and apparently accepts donations for their worthy programs, including from Australia. A.S.