Do Palestinians want a two-state outcome?

Palestinians do not want, as an outcome of the Israeli–Palestinian dispute, a one-state outcome, where Jews and Arabs have equal rights over the entirety of the land.

Since 2014, Palestinians were asked six different questions that gave them an option of supporting a one-state outcome. Some of these questions were repeated many times – enabling us to see trends. Sometimes the questions were one-off, offering a range of alternatives, including a one-state outcome. Sometimes the questions were a binary yes/no question. In all such questions, the answers are definitive: Palestinians do not support a one-state outcome.

This page is part of a long report on Palestinian public opinion from 2014. It examines Palestinian opinions on what Palestinians want to achieve vis-à-vis the Israeli–Palestinian dispute, how they want to achieve it, what they want their state to look like and their views on Hamas and the Israel–Hamas war that began in October 2023. To see the rest of the report, click here.

Yes/no questions

A question that was asked in almost every survey since 2014 was whether Palestinians would support or oppose abandoning the two-state solution and instead demand the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis

In every poll, a substantial majority of Palestinians opposed the suggestion.

The average result is 28% in support and 67% opposed.

In every survey between March 2014 and March 2016, then again in September 2016, March 2017 and March 2018, Palestinians were asked if they support a one-state outcome.

In these questions, even in the offered context of an “inevitable failure” of the two-state outcome, Palestinians were solidly against a one-state outcome that included equality between Jews and Arabs, with an average of 30% in support and 69% against.

Similarly, from December 2021 until September 2023, Palestinians were asked directly whether they wanted a one-state outcome where the two sides enjoyed equal rights. Like the questions above, this question didn’t offer a range of options, but was a binary yes/no choice of a one-state outcome.

Over the eight consecutive surveys in which the question was asked, the average was 26% saying yes, and 71% saying no.

There wasn’t much differentiation between Gaza and the West Bank. The average yes vote for Gazans was 26% and, for West Bankers, 25%.

Multiple choice questions

In September 2018, Palestinians were asked,

The results were clear: 24% wanted one state; 53% wanted two states and 14% wanted some other (unspecified) solution. Even though this question provided respondents with multiple possible answers, the 24.2% result in favour of a one-state outcome was near identical to the three questions previously discussed, which only offered a yes-no choice in regards to a one-state outcome.

(Interestingly, there were significant differences between the Gazan and West Bank Palestinians. The results for the one-state outcome were very similar: 25% of West Bank Palestinians chose this, compared to 23% of Gazans. However, only 44% of West Bank Palestinians chose the two-state outcome, compared with 67% of Gazans. And 21% of West Bank Palestinians chose the unspecified ‘third solution’, compared with only 4% of Gazans.)

The question was expanded upon in the next two surveys (December 2018 and March 2019). Palestinians were asked, “There is an internal Palestinian discussion regarding the best permanent solution to the conflict with Israel: Is it the two-state solution? Or the one-state solution? Or some other solution? If it were up to you, which of those would you choose?”

The possible answers were also more expansive. Respondents had to choose from:

• The one-state solution in all the areas of Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip whereby the rights of Palestinians and Israeli Jews would be equal in all dimensions
• The two-state solution, in which, next to the State of Israel, an independent Palestinian state would be established on the borders of 1967 with East Jerusalem as its capital
• A third solution

Here, the results were broadly similar, though there was less support for a one-state outcome (an average of 19.7%).

The question was rephrased the following year, but with a wider set of answers. In December 2020, June 2021 and again in December 2021, Palestinians were asked, “Which of the following do you prefer as a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?”

In the first two surveys, respondents chose between a two-state solution, a one-state solution, a Palestinian-Israel confederation and “Others”. In the December 2021 survey, the confederation option was removed and replaced with “One state as the case of the Palestinians of the inside today”. We take this to mean annexation by Israel, whereby Israel, the West Bank and Gaza becomes part of Israel, and Palestinians become citizens of Israel (as opposed to the typical vision of a one-state outcome, where the state does not define itself by its majority ethnicity or religion.) As a consequence of then-US President Donald Trump’s proposed ‘Deal of the Century’, Israeli annexation of the West Bank was considered a possibility at that time.

Despite the changed answers, the results are relatively consistent. In the first two surveys, the average results were:

• Two-state solution, state of Palestine next to the state of Israel based on the 1967 borders: 47.4%
• One state for Jews and Arabs: 7.8%
• A Palestinian-Israel confederation: 10.1%
• Others: 19.9%

In the December 2021 poll, noting the different possible answers, support for a two-state solution dropped by 14%, which was picked up in support for a one-state solution and ‘others’. Still, as below, support for a one-state solution was not popular.

• Two-state solution, state of Palestine next to the state of Israel based on the 1967 borders: 33%
• One state for Jews and Arabs: 16%
• One state as the case of the Palestinians of the inside today: 11%
• Others: 32%

There was a significant round of violence in and around Gaza in May 2021. But this didn’t appear to have affected the survey results for this question, beyond support for one state dropping from 9.3% in December 2020 to 6.3% in June 2021.

The question was reintroduced in December 2023, during the early stages of the Hamas–Israel war. This time, the question was, “What solution should Palestinians seek to achieve?” This time, the possible answers included continued fighting until Israel’s destruction, which was, by a considerable margin, the most popular choice.

The one-state option garnered only five percent.

In June 2020, another question offered a one-state outcome as a possibility. However, the question is harder to analyse, because the possible responses included a mix of tactics and objectives.

Given an option to choose ‘armed struggle’, a clear plurality did so. However, it’s difficult to assess, given this wasn’t tied to an objective. The utility of violence, and the Palestinians’ favoured means of achieving their objectives is discussed here [to update later].

Notwithstanding the difficulty in properly assessing this question, given the mix of tactics and objectives, it is once again clear that a one-state outcome is not popular, with only 6.1% favouring this option.

There were significant differences between Gaza and the West Bank in some of the responses. For instance, 45% of Gazans favoured returning to armed struggle, compared with 22% of West Bank Palestinians. And only 16% of Gazans favoured returning to negotiations, compared with 28% of West Bank Palestinians.

Conclusion

Over the ten-year period, Palestinians were asked on numerous occasions and in numerous different ways whether they favour and/or should seek a one-state outcome. Depending on the permutation of the question and the offered alternatives, responses in favour of a one-state outcome range between five per cent and 29%.

This leads us to numerous conclusions:

• Only a minority of Palestinians want a one-state outcome
• Those individuals and organisations in Australia that are pushing for a one-state outcome – including those organisations that claim to speak for Palestinians – are not only at odds with Australian Government and Palestinian Authority policy, but also the will of the Palestinian people.