Australia/Israel Review

By any measure, the six-week mediated ceasefire and lopsided terrorists-for-hostage swap deal between Israel and Hamas that went into effect on January 19, and the 60-day mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon (standing in for Hezbollah) that started on Nov. 27, were hard-earned achievements for the Israeli military. 

Over the past 15 months, during Israel’s longest sustained war ever, more than 800 IDF soldiers have paid the ultimate price to arrive at the current situation, even as Israel inflicted many times more casualties on Hamas and Hezbollah combatants. 

Meanwhile, according to experts like West Point’s John Spencer, the IDF’s urban battlefield ratio of combatant to non-combatant casualties was another stand-out accomplishment, comparing favourably to those achieved by Western armies fighting jihadist forces in similar situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hezbollah’s aerial offensive, which began a day after Hamas’ attack on October 7, was the first step in an outrageously aggressive and audacious Iranian campaign against the Jewish state, involving no less than seven active fronts. On top of proxies like the Houthis of Yemen and the Shi’ite militias in Iraq, by April 2024, Iran dropped its mask entirely and attacked Israel directly, an act it repeated in October.

Today, all elements of the Iranian-sponsored “axis of resistance” have been substantially degraded. Recent face-saving efforts by the terror groups to strut around with weapons and declare on social media that they beat the IDF into submission shouldn’t fool anyone.

Both Hezbollah and Hamas – which saw Israel eliminate their respective top leaders in Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar, along with practically all their commanders and best-trained fighters – have received blows from the IDF that will take years to recover from. 

Yet these military achievements have not yet been converted into lasting Israeli strategic victories off the battlefield. 

What this means is that if these ceasefires were to become permanent as they stand now – without toppling Hamas rule over Gaza or allowing for continued freedom of action by Israel against emerging threats in the north – there is no doubt that both terror groups would soon recover, and seek to come back stronger and better prepared for yet another, even costlier round of war.

In the case of Hezbollah, as the initial ceasefire time frame was approaching its Jan. 26 endpoint at press time, the Lebanese Armed Forces had yet to deploy to most of south Lebanon and had hardly confiscated any Hezbollah arms. Understandably, Israel has been asking for an extension of the original deadline to pull out of Lebanon in order to prevent Hezbollah rushing into the vacuum and returning to Israel’s borders before the Lebanese army fulfils its promised role. 

Australia should add its voice to the countries that support this request.

Regarding the Gaza ceasefire, analysts identify a potential pressure point arising just 16 days into the 42-day deal, when the agreement says the two sides should begin negotiating the deal’s murky “second stage”. Many believe Hamas will likely start finding excuses to delay further hostage releases, in hopes that international pressure will prevent Israel from resuming the war no matter what Hamas does.

Both Israeli and world leaders must remain clear-eyed and continue thinking strategically, despite the strong emotions that have been inevitably stirred by recent events surrounding the ceasefires.

Joyful emotions flooded Israel on seeing the first handful of Israeli captives returned to their families after the deal with Hamas. Everyone wants this to continue. 

Similarly, images of residents of northern Israel returning to rebuild their lives after the IDF ended Hezbollah’s lengthy air assault are also deeply gratifying. 

Yet both Israel and the world must never lose sight of the fact that negotiating with unscrupulous terrorists, while unavoidable in the case of the October 7 hostages, is still a Faustian bargain. It rarely goes according to plan and tilts the playing field in favour of jihadists who have absolutely no moral qualms about waging endless war, regardless of how many innocents – Israeli, Palestinian, Lebanese or others – are hurt or killed. 

History teaches that Iranian-backed terror proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas have always viewed ceasefires as nothing more than temporary and tactical pauses.

For this reason, Israel can’t afford to forget or gloss over the risks inherent in the release of convicted terrorists or squander any of the leverage it currently has – especially the ability to resume war if necessary. Otherwise, it will never liberate the dozens of hostages not slated to be freed in this stage of the deal and will almost certainly see Hamas resume its despotic grip over the Gazan population, putting it back on the path to planning a repeat of October 7, as it has promised to do.

Here at home, all too often in recent months we’ve heard Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong urge an immediate ceasefire, as if this were an end in itself. 

This ignores the fact that every war that Hamas has initiated against Israel has been launched from the state of a mediated ceasefire, while UN Security Council Resolution 1701 – which codified the ceasefire that ended the Hezbollah-instigated 2006 war by imposing tight restrictions on the terror group – instead paved the way for the largest military buildup by any terrorist group in the world, along Israel’s northern border.

Now more than ever, it must be remembered that a ceasefire is merely a means to an end – that end being sustainable stability, or better yet, true peace. An end to fighting and dying is of course desirable – but not if it prepares the ground for even more severe future conflagrations. 

Any ceasefire that leaves Hamas in power in Gaza, militarily or politically, and holding even a single Israeli hostage, or allows Hezbollah to rebuild its terror forces and missile array under the nose of a feckless Lebanese army, would not only be farcical, it would light the fuse on an even more terrible war in years to come. 

On the other hand, achieving the comprehensive military and political dismantlement of both Hamas and Hezbollah is an absolutely indispensable precondition for any serious hope of advancing toward any meaningful and lasting Israeli-Palestinian or Israeli-Lebanese peace.