Australia/Israel Review

For the first time in years, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been stepping up its activities in various areas of governance. This includes increasing its counterterrorism operations in the West Bank, appointing a temporary replacement for President Mahmoud Abbas in the event he is incapacitated, and signalling willingness to reform the mechanism for payments to prisoners.

This unusual surge in activity appears to be aimed primarily at demonstrating the PA’s governance and enforcement capabilities against opposition forces challenging its authority. This is particularly important at a time when Hamas is already challenging the PA in the West Bank and could do so even more energetically now that Israel is releasing Hamas prisoners as part of the new deal to free hostages in Gaza. Their release could strengthen Hamas politically and militarily, reinvigorating the idea of victory through “resistance”. 

The PA’s current activity also serves as a message to Israel and the incoming US Administration that it can address internal challenges in the West Bank, implement necessary reforms, and be an alternative to Hamas in Gaza on the “day after” the war.

At this stage, the scope and effectiveness of the PA’s measures in the West Bank remain unclear, partly because it is making greater efforts in some areas, particularly security initiatives, and less on political and social issues. Given the PA’s poor functionality and low public standing, these measures are unlikely to represent a profound change, nor are they expected to transform the PA – certainly not during Abbas’ tenure.

Nevertheless, given the complex situation Israel faces and the challenges it will likely encounter in the near future, it would do well to continue supporting the PA, particularly in security and governance. 

PA security operations in the northern West Bank 

Over late December to early January, PA security forces carried out intensive operations for the first time in a decade, acting with determination to eliminate pockets of terrorism and lawlessness in the Jenin area, particularly the Jenin refugee camp. Dubbed “Homeland Defence”, the operation began on Dec. 14 and has targeted the terrorist groups (“battalions”) that emerged in the northern West Bank (Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nablus) in recent years and began spreading to other areas, like Ramallah. 

These groups – which often clash with Israeli forces – are funded by Iran and also receive support from established organisations, particularly Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). They also oppose the PA and undermine its authority. In recent months, an increasing number of images and videos have been circulating online showing armed militants conducting marches and parades in various West Bank locations. At these events, they express support for Hamas and opposition to the PA, accusing it of collaborating with Israel. 

As part of its efforts in Jenin and beyond to prevent terrorism and chaos, the PA has deployed special forces and utilised advanced measures against wanted individuals, such as firing rocket-propelled grenades at their residences. Security forces arrested 700 Palestinians, seized and destroyed dozens of booby-trapped vehicles, and uncovered significant quantities of weapons and ammunition. 

The PA security apparatus is also cracking down on those expressing support for Hamas or PIJ or promoting protests against the PA. The measures taken include economic penalties, border crossing restrictions, and arrests. 

Despite the PA’s operation in Jenin, Palestinian terrorism in the West Bank continues to exact a bloody price. The four weeks after Dec. 14 saw eight terrorist attacks categorised as “significant” by the Israel Security Agency (killing four Israelis), along with 45 other attacks. In all of them, the perpetrators came from the northern West Bank.

Abbas’ temporary replacement

In the political realm, there appears to be a change, though some perceive it as superficial. For over a decade, the 89-year-old Abbas has faced external and internal pressure to appoint a successor who could lead the Palestinians after his departure. The primary concern is that his absence could spark a power struggle among competing candidates for the presidency. The war in Gaza has added urgency to these discussions as Arab states and Washington explore alternatives to Hamas rule, including proposals to reinvigorate and reorganise the PA.

Abbas avoided appointing a successor, possibly because he lacked a preferred candidate or feared that a nominee might act against him during his lifetime. Nevertheless, in a surprising move, he recently announced that, if he is incapacitated, Rawhi Fattouh will become president for 90 days until general elections can be held.

Fattouh is not a candidate for PA chairman in future elections. After Yasser Arafat’s death in November 2004, he served as interim chairman until Abbas was elected in January 2005. His appointment is apparently intended to address external pressures and ensure immediate stability post-Abbas.

Reforming the prisoner payment system 

For many years, Israeli and international officials have pressured Abbas to reform the policy of paying Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and the families of Palestinians killed by Israel. The current system is based on the length of the prisoner’s sentence, essentially rewarding individuals who kill more Israelis with higher payments. The United States, European countries, and Israel have asked the PA to adopt a system based on social welfare criteria instead, but Abbas has resisted such changes, likely because the prisoners have symbolic significance in Palestinian society.

Recently, a PA legal representative indicated that current discussions on this issue may lead to a shift in this longstanding policy. 

Conclusion

The fragile security situation has underscored to President Abbas that he cannot remain passive and must address the centres of terrorism and chaos in the West Bank to avoid losing control. Additionally, the hostage-prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas and attendant release of Palestinian prisoners could strengthen Hamas’ military, political, and public standing in the West Bank. 

Accordingly, while Abbas boycotted Trump during his first term, he is now signalling a willingness to cooperate with Washington and is taking steps to demonstrate his control over the West Bank. 

These actions might also demonstrate the PA’s ability to govern postwar Gaza if given the opportunity. While the current security operations and political changes may not represent a deep transformation – certainly not one that will alter the military, political, and social system under Abbas’ leadership – they underscore the importance of continued US and Israeli support for the PA in various areas, particularly security. 

Further, it is important to encourage the PA to implement profound changes in a number of areas – security, political, economic, and social – to strengthen its status and foster stability in the West Bank, and to prevent Fatah from being weakened as Hamas grows stronger after the hostage deal. In the longer term, it is important to bolster the PA so that it can serve as an alternative to Hamas in Gaza – not the optimal scenario, but better than all the other options currently available.

Neomi Neumann is a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former head of the research unit at the Israel Security Agency (“Shin Bet”). © Washington Institute (washingtoninstitute.org), reprinted by permission, all rights reserved.